Syrian crisis and its regional implications

Will political decentralization form the basis of the post-crisis Syrian state architecture, and how will this redefine other neighbouring states, and hence the overall regional order? Indeed, the Russian position has evolved, and Moscow has devoted greater attention to humanitarian concerns.

On the political front, the Assad regime, which from the outset viewed the situation as an existential conflict, remains single-mindedly determined to stay in power.

Syrian civil war research paper

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. Negotiated settlement was deemed the least likely of the possible scenarios. Whether and how Bashar al-Assad is forced from power and there is some form of internal reconciliation will reshape the balance of power politically in the country. And although its forces have largely abandoned the countryside around major urban hubs to the opposition, they can still reach these areas with long-range artillery and air power. Its initial position of placing a heavy bet on Bashar al-Assad, based on an instinctive affinity with the Syrian regime, could prove to have been a strategic miscalculation but one that was perhaps unavoidable. How will the crisis unfold? These can be summarized as follows: - The rise of the Iran, Hezbollah and Syria alliance: Since , and especially since , there has been more interdependence between these players. The SOC will also need help in achieving a monopoly on external funding and supply of weapons to armed opposition groups. General Assembly and throughout the Middle East. Iran's claim of pan-Islamism across the region, which would unite Sunni and Shi'a, is no longer credible, if it ever were. The authors update and reassess these scenarios based on developments in Syria and Iraq through August and explore the implications that each has for Syria, the region, and the United States. Similarly, regime victory in Syria will not offer as large a win to Iran as previously thought. Still, the regime is viewed by critics and allies alike as increasingly weak.

Similarly, regime victory in Syria will not offer as large a win to Iran as previously thought. Meanwhile, the Assad regime still has considerable military assets in reserve. Key Findings Workshop participants felt that prolonged conflict was the best descriptor for the situation in Syria as of Decemberbut momentum seemed to be leaning toward regime victory.

This dynamic is raising questions and concerns about future coordination and cooperation between military and civilian opposition groups.

crisis in syria

Research Questions How have developments in the Syrian civil war through August and changing dynamics in the insurgencies in Syria and Iraq affected U. In crafting its approach to the Syrian conflict, the Maliki-led government has sought to balance pressure from the United States with the substantial influence Iran has over the Baghdad government.

Syrian civil war scholarly article

Further complicating the picture are the Syrian Kurds who, up to this point, have generally remained on the sidelines. The Obama administration has steadfastly opposed supplying such weapons, lest they fall into the hands of extremists. Israel: On the whole, the Israeli policymaking establishment has opposed becoming embroiled in the Syrian conflict, believing that involvement of any kind is likely to be counter-productive. Here US diplomacy could prove helpful in persuading regional and extra-regional actors of the risks of effectively sabotaging the efforts of the SOC. What are the new alliances that will be privileged? Syrian Kurdish communities are not geographically contiguous, and Syrian Kurds are divided politically. Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience. This combination of personal, political, and sectarian rationales has made Saudi Arabia one of the most vocal regional actors in calling for an end to the Assad regime and has translated into significant Saudi financial support for the opposition, which has used the money to buy arms on the black market. The SOC will also need help in achieving a monopoly on external funding and supply of weapons to armed opposition groups. Iraqi Kurdish factions, too, have had to balance the manner and extent of their intervention in Syria against their broader political, economic, and energy interests. The deteriorating security condition on the border has prompted Turkey to request Patriot missile batteries from its NATO allies to protect Turkish territory from Syrian missile attacks.
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Alternative Futures for Syria: Regional Implications and Challenges for the United States